NFL · resolved market
Will the Ravens and Bills combine for 52 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b8a6f9516273d7767ded291cd602fd734904d83ecc44050d183be0384bbd36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Over | 50c | 13,755$6,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,915.43 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 13,157$6,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,615.88 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 50c | 377.51$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Under | 48c | 333.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…5a22backed Over | 52c | 204.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Over | 52c | 203.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked Over | 52c | 54.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Under | 46c | 51.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…c395backed Over | 52c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…8929backed Over | 52c | 29.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…6c27backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…3fa3backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…6b34backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…b1e3backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baa…e512backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…0776backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185e…c63cbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f6…7ca6backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…987abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…8509backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ravens and Bills combine for 52 or more points?this page
- Will the Ravens beat the Bills by 2 or more points?Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.