NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c4b5a643e0bddaa69ada97d69a48c5ee92af2ce0519507312fffe4802dcf42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Severstal Cherepovets, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee39…59bfbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 72c | 1,658$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 73c | 545.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.75 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 441.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 196$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 72c | 142$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 72c | 139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 70c | 133$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 70c | 101$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Severstal Cherepovets | 70c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 30c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Severstal Cherepovets | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.