Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Alexander Wagner vs Nikita Mashtakov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4661bf3a9f6e04b21baed95d950d37e2ca60d6eb3562007ae05a2fb8d96c09e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nikita Mashtakovof Alexander Wagner, Nikita Mashtakov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nikita Mashtakov | 78c | 767.71$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Alexander Wagner | 3c | 552.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Alexander Wagner | 48c | 418.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…27d1backed Alexander Wagner | 38c | 311.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…f9f5backed Alexander Wagner | 26c | 294.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alexander Wagner | 15c | 268.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 71c | 246.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Alexander Wagner | 24c | 127.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 80c | 102.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Nikita Mashtakov | 64c | 98.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Nikita Mashtakov | 58c | 87.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 445 | 52.8%235 W · 210 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alexander Wagner | 25c | 82.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Nikita Mashtakov | 69c | 75.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Nikita Mashtakov | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 469 | 57.6%270 W · 199 L | +32.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 355 | 58.6%208 W · 147 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Alexander Wagner | 43c | 51.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 391 | 59.1%231 W · 160 L | +28.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 48.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…af6bbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.