Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x466c1aea4a4e7a0194382a36936a030048853e34927a899b6c16de95c0d2084a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 245.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 39c | 203.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 35c | 181.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 74c | 134.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 72c | 128.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 126.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…93e2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 72c | 93.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 87.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 80.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 79.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 65.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 61.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 64c | 46.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 45c | 42.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 40.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 77c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 90°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.