Premier League · resolved market
Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468ae2bd4bebeea0473097a94909d1b06560bf7d47675e0f5ce0e69bdab81176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 3,558$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.55 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 44c | 3,232$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 1,185$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 1,071$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.11 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 12c | 850$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 72c | 691.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.67 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 16c | 690.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 46c | 675.96$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.96 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 80c | 611.59$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 79c | 324.36$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 278.29$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 228.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 80c | 226.16$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 28c | 224.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 8c | 173.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 79c | 108.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Over | 71c | 39.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Over | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 79c | 21.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 57c | 20.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…48acbacked Over | 72c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Oxford United FC (-1.5)Oxford United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.