Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Penn Quakers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47485df472fac245ed5d607e60e50c15a43167bdfc5ff354d7a17a99a8a88c1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Princeton Tigersof Penn Quakers, Princeton Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Princeton Tigers | 54c | 459.13$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 323.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn Quakers | 43c | 317.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Princeton Tigers | 57c | 312.8$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Penn Quakers | 44c | 166$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Penn Quakers | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Princeton Tigers | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…0014backed Princeton Tigers | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Princeton Tigers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Princeton Tigers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Princeton Tigers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Princeton Tigers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Princeton Tigers | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Princeton Tigers | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Princeton Tigers | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-4.5)this page
- Princeton Tigers vs. Penn QuakersPenn Quakers won
- Princeton Tigers vs. Penn Quakers: O/U 142.5Under won
- Princeton Tigers vs. Penn Quakers: O/U 143.5Under won
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-3.5)Princeton Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.