Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4758f2160884fd0fea382c34bc175686b5ac504ce1c85240e5a8e816a667642c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,792$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 54c | 749$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.46 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 53c | 399.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 52c | 340$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Under | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Over | 54c | 200.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 54c | 186.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 53c | 177.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…1c75backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 54c | 88.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 50c | 72.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 49c | 50.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 54c | 46.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…db97backed Over | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Over | 56c | 26.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.