Champions League · resolved market
Will Panama beat Guatemala?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c21b2c4fec365326d7e3a9865c21fdfa79281bfbe81485f655ed24ecdbbaea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 37c | 2,187$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.19 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00e0backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546c…9b5cbacked Yes | 59c | 955$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 35c | 546.65$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6f3bbacked Yes | 59c | 505$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b8…5ee8backed Yes | 60c | 505$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 66c | 502.82$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…0cebbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1472…3c62backed Yes | 60c | 480$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 39c | 397.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 34c | 392.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3073backed No | 41c | 390$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cdb6backed No | 40c | 390$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 61c | 250.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…b979backed No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…80ccbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…b5babacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Panama beat Guatemala?this page
- Will Guatemala beat Panama?No won
- Will Guatemala vs. Panama end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.