Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cfe6d631683374e7cd798cc111091eb7824586bae7536b36386f2a4cb508a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Paolini | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Rybakina | 70c | 6,252$4,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.04 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rybakina | 71c | 4,209$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.62 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Paolini | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rybakina | 66c | 1,322$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.06 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Paolini | 31c | 1,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.91 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Paolini | 34c | 1,073$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rybakina | 67c | 1,073$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.78 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Paolini | 35c | 1,069$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.27 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rybakina | 68c | 1,041$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rybakina | 68c | 1,026$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.87 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paolini | 25c | 794.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rybakina | 66c | 692.12$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rybakina | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 70c | 578.15$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.19 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Paolini | 33c | 527$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Paolini | 24c | 357.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rybakina | 72c | 322.41$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Paolini | 36c | 321$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Paolini | 34c | 317.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rybakina | 79c | 313.33$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Rybakina | 69c | 308.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Paolini | 35c | 202.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Paolini | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rybakina | 75c | 158.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 750 | 61.7%463 W · 287 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rybakina | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Paolini | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Rybakina | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Paolini | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…08bfbacked Paolini | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Paolini | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Paolini | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…7902backed Paolini | 28c | 54.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rybakina | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rybakina | 65c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.