Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48584edc7afdbca9e9a4889f3b421b5b8ebdd8d94161e5b58b9850a33a1eb1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,675 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 38c | 819.5$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.35 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 43c | 525$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 31c | 382.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 47c | 267.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 52c | 252.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…46c5backed Yes | 67c | 193.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 49c | 129.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 109.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Yes | 69c | 94.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…7be6backed Yes | 64c | 83.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 81.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2414…f34ebacked Yes | 52c | 73.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 44c | 64.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 62c | 45.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 41c | 42.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 28c | 41.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…c3c5backed No | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 32c | 35.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 27.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 53c | 24.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…6749backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e78…27e8backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…8d8dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 11?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 11?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 11?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.