MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488571f8070c703f31d8462798b5a1682947770315cbc1f52f64c1a2384314e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Athletics | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 8,771$3,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.11 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 6,278$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.07 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…6099backed Athletics | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 2,499$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.8 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 60c | 1,405$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,019$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.47 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 712.68$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.77 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 552.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 329$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Athletics | 77c | 326$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 60c | 167.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Athletics | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…eee9backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 47.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Athletics | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Athletics | 59c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Athletics | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,064 | 53.8%1,110 W · 954 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.