Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4893330f3e483d2c09c120e35ff4a4b2b61b3b59d4a912a5bfca745a389b6be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 2,601$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.73 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,587$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.56 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 76c | 666.81$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.78 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 25c | 624.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 42c | 557.08$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 62c | 320.32$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…0aedbacked Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 238.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 65c | 117.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 58c | 82.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 76.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked Over | 78c | 33.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Over | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…f00dbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5Under won
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)FC Groningen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.