Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Katie Boulter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a29812822a0491e014b4fd533f0f270a3f1c5211d329b02e8c2184485796f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Boulter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Boulter | 0c | 20,605$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cirstea | 67c | 3,093$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.06 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Cirstea | 50c | 2,335$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.25 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Boulter | 50c | 1,700$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cirstea | 51c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Boulter | 40c | 675$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.6 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Boulter | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Boulter | 46c | 392.54$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cirstea | 68c | 362.47$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boulter | 49c | 357.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Boulter | 32c | 312.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Boulter | 29c | 271$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Boulter | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Boulter | 31c | 165.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Boulter | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Cirstea | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Boulter | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cirstea | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.