UFC · resolved market
UFC 316: O'Malley and Harrison Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c0c4c098854ef90b4227544f2c874cc78f566ad996ec3c6b8bef38f29d83e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Yes | 29c | 3,465$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed No | 71c | 3,285$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.73 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 72c | 2,963$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…a504backed Yes | 28c | 1,852$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…44dcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 72c | 999.95$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed Yes | 22c | 995$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…069bbacked Yes | 23c | 980$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…a608backed Yes | 28c | 964.29$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…b41abacked No | 77c | 710$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…a37ebacked No | 78c | 640$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…52babacked No | 78c | 620$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…a22ebacked Yes | 30c | 564.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…debebacked No | 78c | 375$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…c6f6backed No | 78c | 360$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…bb99backed No | 76c | 360$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…453abacked No | 77c | 290$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 71c | 234.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 70c | 178.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 28c | 127.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…f8acbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…53d1backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…8e37backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.