Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494ead5741be90e3ef943577cf1e3489d03160a030d6569ea479a07cfcb854f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 12c | 325.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 50c | 280.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 250.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 121.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 44c | 60.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 33c | 60.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 52.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 48.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 66c | 43.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 28c | 41.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 56c | 37.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 35.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 44c | 34.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 70c | 30.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 58c | 27.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 44c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 46c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 14.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.