NBA · resolved market
Thunder win and SGA scores 34+ points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x496306d720439ac19c2d0868d6fb4688ea2a2011885a6a74a74832fe3223b2ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yes | 40c | 1,061$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 60c | 1,044$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.36 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 62c | 198.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…cd78backed Yes | 39c | 127.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…312abacked No | 68c | 44.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.