Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b38b44d8264688ed7faa384ac1b7359d936b25289489e5292a14223345e3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 34c | 1,425$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 74c | 662$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 277.64$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 29c | 209.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 106.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 75c | 78.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 41c | 45.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked No | 75c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 77c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…3ba4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.