Tennis · resolved market
Metepec: Axel Nefve vs Alan Sau Franco
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49bc092ebad333c2321f780b7360ebb7d7b3124d412149432e7e21d68708fcfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nefveof Nefve, Franco
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Franco | 1c | 4,139$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Franco | 12c | 580.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Franco | 20c | 343$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Franco | 18c | 231.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Franco | 9c | 209$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Nefve | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Franco | 15c | 191.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Franco | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Nefve | 74c | 136.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…3314backed Franco | 45c | 132.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…ae5fbacked Franco | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Franco | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Nefve | 75c | 92.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Franco | 12c | 87.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Nefve | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nefve | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.