Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Katie Boulter vs Belinda Bencic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e70aa8775b841952e5dbde808cea10abcbb4001028504058a09fc78ba11ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bencicof Boulter, Bencic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Boulter | 13c | 9,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boulter | 5c | 5,061$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Boulter | 12c | 4,900$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Boulter | 1c | 4,364$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Boulter | 14c | 3,666$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Boulter | 9c | 1,245$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boulter | 9c | 1,224$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Boulter | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Boulter | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Boulter | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Boulter | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Katie Boulter vs Belinda Bencicthis page
- Boulter vs. Bencic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Boulter vs. Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5)Bencic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.