Dota2 · resolved market
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49ee6a21c6181d27ca912e047b68524a3261582b74a6ec6223b9b848b8b48430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…d4a1backed Yes | 57c | 1,895$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…9f66backed Yes | 4c | 1,055$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…0fd4backed Yes | 4c | 1,025$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…0326backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…e958backed Yes | 5c | 1,015$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6812…3ba2backed Yes | 4c | 1,012$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…efecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,010$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…c55dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…92e2backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…e335backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9036…59d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…18adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…c369backed Yes | 5c | 1,009$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…12cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…51a8backed Yes | 5c | 995$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…36b7backed Yes | 4c | 995$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…bd90backed Yes | 4c | 990$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…03c8backed Yes | 4c | 989.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…feb9backed Yes | 4c | 989.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…f9e9backed Yes | 4c | 989.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…1817backed Yes | 4c | 980$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…363fbacked Yes | 4c | 980$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…9ce1backed Yes | 4c | 979.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b2…2d99backed Yes | 4c | 970$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…969bbacked Yes | 4c | 970$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…2679backed Yes | 3c | 970$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…e42ebacked Yes | 4c | 969.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…ee81backed Yes | 3c | 969.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4305…df2ebacked Yes | 4c | 960$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…05e1backed Yes | 4c | 955$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…937bbacked Yes | 4c | 954.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…2227backed Yes | 4c | 954.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…ad9ebacked Yes | 4c | 950$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…8147backed Yes | 4c | 949.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…ed7fbacked Yes | 4c | 949.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 51c | 537$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 40c | 366$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed No | 40c | 142$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?this page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 1 PlayoffsRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)Rune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.