F1 · resolved market
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a54be77fff6b0c09bda922bde612a5f6dd5cc3912491ff205c8cf0d9e97096b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verstappenof Verstappen, Piastri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,550 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe196…7976backed Verstappen | 43c | 231.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Piastri | 56c | 117.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…af4bbacked Verstappen | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Piastri | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Verstappen | 33c | 79.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Piastri | 75c | 66.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Verstappen | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Piastri | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Piastri | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Verstappen | 40c | 45.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Verstappen | 29c | 40.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Piastri | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…0c54backed Piastri | 55c | 31.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3dc0backed Piastri | 67c | 30.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Piastri | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -8.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Piastri | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…23c3backed Piastri | 70c | 22.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri?this page
- Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.?Jr. won
- Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg?Hulkenberg won
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton?Hamilton won
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Piastri?Leclerc won
- Who will finish higher: Lindblad or Lawson?Lawson won
- Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen?Verstappen won
- Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli?Antonelli won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar?Hadjar won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton?Hamilton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.