Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a5f1879ab2b089169d6ed44b8651769681021ec67b1d3359baa39a4390ec6cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samoaof Samoa, Vanuatu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Samoa | 76c | 543.85$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 432 | 44.2%191 W · 241 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Vanuatu | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…6a38backed Vanuatu | 28c | 196.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Samoa | 76c | 186.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Vanuatu | 23c | 182$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 510 | 47.6%243 W · 267 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Vanuatu | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vanuatu | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Vanuatu | 29c | 101.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…e26bbacked Samoa | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…4c15backed Samoa | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Samoa | 76c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked Samoa | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 470 | 61.5%289 W · 181 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Samoa | 74c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Samoa | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 427 | 47.8%204 W · 223 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.