Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a985bab47773d824d1f6471998c5c8a44d823c38e7750b0c1fd9d942f10c009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 52c | 1,129$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.08 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 689.29$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 42c | 483.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 469.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.21 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 427.52$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.21 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes | 48c | 311.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 45c | 310.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 49c | 304.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 48c | 232.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed No | 63c | 161.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 49c | 146.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 39c | 139.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Yes | 21c | 114.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 48c | 106.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 71.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 59.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 58.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…1546backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 33c | 41.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 65c | 33.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 80c | 28.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 41c | 26.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 76c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…5e67backed Yes | 46c | 23.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 72c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 75c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.