Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4025d1288e15b1d4430768135ee5277dd1742d6acbb825bd5c7d9d5b8d7c8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 41c | 734.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.85 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 248.81$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.1 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 7c | 227.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 23c | 188.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 62c | 173.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 42c | 172.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 39c | 126.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 106.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 48c | 105.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 48c | 104.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…6e97backed No | 68c | 103.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 82.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 64.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Yes | 79c | 35.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.