Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab83335de9988696debb1c444e2be4707a7f6de7dcf73dbf7c4f2e083777009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78e0…375bbacked Tsitsipas | 65c | 796.93$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rinderknech | 11c | 602.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech | 36c | 579.81$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Rinderknech | 51c | 88.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…ffdbbacked Tsitsipas | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…9077backed Rinderknech | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rinderknech | 40c | 49.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…e21bbacked Rinderknech | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…def5backed Tsitsipas | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…beaabacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Rinderknech | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Rinderknech | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…8cb9backed Rinderknech | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Rinderknech | 35c | 31.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Rinderknech | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…6c98backed Rinderknech | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…25debacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…4434backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…abd6backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…d26ebacked Rinderknech | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe1…14e5backed Rinderknech | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…3c6fbacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…82c5backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1472…8635backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed Tsitsipas | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Rinderknechthis page
- Rotterdam Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur RinderknechTsitsipas won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)Tsitsipas won
- Tsitsipas vs. Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.