TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rotterdam Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Rinderknech

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Rinderknech
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56fc…733ebacked Tsitsipas65c15,109$9,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280.611053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78e0…375bbacked Rinderknech28c12,448$3,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.942055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rinderknech34c8,037$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.777,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rinderknech27c7,239$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.322,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9773…31dfbacked Tsitsipas65c6,134$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Rinderknech12c3,410$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5233556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech34c3,385$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.3211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rinderknech17c3,320$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.948,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Tsitsipas62c2,676$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.7423126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Tsitsipas61c2,379$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.6193055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Tsitsipas68c2,216$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.9711560%69 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Tsitsipas70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rinderknech38c1,967$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.5725428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb6…0030backed Tsitsipas61c1,782$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x915d…fb0fbacked Rinderknech38c1,740$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Rinderknech34c1,721$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.1312752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Tsitsipas66c1,610$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.645853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Tsitsipas69c1,443$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8913260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Rinderknech39c1,299$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Rinderknech39c1,265$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.341,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Tsitsipas63c1,111$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.0631753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rinderknech25c1,093$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.352,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rinderknech37c1,029$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.317,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Tsitsipas64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3607037.1%26 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Tsitsipas63c999.97$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Rinderknech38c859.27$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.523246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Tsitsipas63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6584736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked Tsitsipas70c760$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Rinderknech38c754.68$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.184,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Tsitsipas69c716.38$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1125556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b03…2c36backed Rinderknech38c627.37$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Tsitsipas64c617.32$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3218663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Rinderknech5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2912722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Tsitsipas64c550$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19817867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rinderknech11c530.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.381,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Rinderknech37c522.93$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.12,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tsitsipas68c522.45$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.312,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Rinderknech38c490$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.238048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Rinderknech36c457.68$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4212631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Rinderknech38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tsitsipas66c358.65$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7149143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech28c352.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.32,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Rinderknech40c350$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Rinderknech34c347$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9928933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Rinderknech26c346$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6810440.4%42 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Tsitsipas64c325.86$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8614475%108 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Tsitsipas62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5814568.3%99 W · 46 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c37…9b8cbacked Rinderknech31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006050%30 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Rinderknech40c320$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12869350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…2509backed Tsitsipas65c301.61$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.563647.2%17 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7a7…64bfbacked Tsitsipas67c298.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+73.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Tsitsipas62c296.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7328338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe940…b9a6backed Rinderknech40c296.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Rinderknech37c270.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.041,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Rinderknech16c268.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4330741.7%128 W · 179 L-1.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Rinderknech39c259.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Tsitsipas67c257.16$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.867365.8%48 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Rinderknech39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Tsitsipas61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.917955.9%100 W · 79 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Tsitsipas65c222.33$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.816553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Rinderknech39c210.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.251,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Tsitsipas62c203.77$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.519643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Rinderknech35c202$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7016339.3%64 W · 99 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Rinderknech13c194.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…a45bbacked Rinderknech39c179.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010757.9%62 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…7701backed Tsitsipas62c179$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Tsitsipas77c175$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2569249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Tsitsipas61c172.65$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3318548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Rinderknech26c170.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9688446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Tsitsipas60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6721454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Rinderknech41c162.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6736047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x430b…6e64backed Rinderknech37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020447.5%97 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x087f…075ebacked Tsitsipas62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Tsitsipas62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.293534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…878cbacked Tsitsipas62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Tsitsipas64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2530750.5%155 W · 152 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0c…9dd0backed Tsitsipas64c155.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Tsitsipas65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9773…f77ebacked Rinderknech14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Rinderknech30c137.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.171,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Tsitsipas64c132.81$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8128762.4%179 W · 108 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Rinderknech13c127.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc55d…9d2dbacked Rinderknech33c106.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.515056%28 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rinderknech21c106$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.651,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rinderknech34c104.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.236,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tsitsipas69c104.19$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.266,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fa…4cfdbacked Tsitsipas62c103.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8d8a…e03fbacked Tsitsipas63c102.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.272958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc4…4f2cbacked Tsitsipas65c101.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rinderknech33c101.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4334842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x693d…95c7backed Rinderknech39c100.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…405fbacked Tsitsipas64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Tsitsipas62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3858753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Rinderknech23c99.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4316132.3%52 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1896…0f63backed Rinderknech37c97.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rinderknech39c94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.612,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Rinderknech16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3da…c91fbacked Tsitsipas67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.555164.7%33 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Rinderknech35c88.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114613.7%20 W · 126 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaaa…452fbacked Rinderknech34c80.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.