South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae45e3333503799e87ed5493fde2ddb22e6e04b252f868bd51d473870d9f020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 4,131$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,050$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 1,091$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 1,042$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.09 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 781.6$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 709$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.79 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 3c | 696$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 492.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 417$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 20c | 352.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 308.29$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 22c | 131.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 22c | 102.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…b05ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 90.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 77c | 83.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 30.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 74c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.