South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Vitória win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205608dfe8333ede5c1c68db060ffaaa6c7b99a2990bd0e4a0613bfa83f7f454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 30,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,400 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 58c | 30,000$17,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,400 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 58c | 14,362$8,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,333.92 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 13,865$5,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,965.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 59c | 6,762$3,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,961.68 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 5,511$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.25 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 47c | 2,838$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.73 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 55c | 2,700$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.67 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 43c | 1,137$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 42c | 1,016$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.22 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a3…4b31backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 39c | 878.59$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.94 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 25c | 799.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 58c | 517.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 42c | 515.93$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.14 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 59c | 430$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 59c | 203.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 74c | 198.3$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 59c | 195.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 192.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 182.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Yes | 49c | 174.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…bfcdbacked No | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…490cbacked Yes | 38c | 127.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…ddf4backed Yes | 40c | 83.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 48c | 63.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 42c | 56.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 42c | 55.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…91c7backed Yes | 54c | 50.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…da2ebacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7eebbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 42c | 32.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…1388backed Yes | 54c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 59c | 17.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Vitória win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.