Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Belle Thompson vs Natsuho Arakawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4afe745c08b7484ec4e73e2ca3cf6526f96526e30318ab9e4a13b7af13e6b135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuho Arakawaof Belle Thompson, Natsuho Arakawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Belle Thompson | 23c | 6,150$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.51 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 1,536$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.42 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 1,437$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.82 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Belle Thompson | 4c | 1,180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Belle Thompson | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 256.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Natsuho Arakawa | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Natsuho Arakawa | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Belle Thompson | 22c | 60.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Belle Thompson | 22c | 60.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Belle Thompson | 22c | 59.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Natsuho Arakawa | 71c | 47.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Natsuho Arakawa | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belle Thompson | 34c | 38.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 38.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Natsuho Arakawa | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Belle Thompson | 46c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Belle Thompson | 43c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Natsuho Arakawa | 71c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Belle Thompson | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Belle Thompson | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Belle Thompson | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Belle Thompson | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.