MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b19b7aa9941bdddd21ac0b820d3e6f3c93006589185fb33e59cca4ba49c9d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 49c | 4,868$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.95 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 49c | 4,400$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 51c | 3,624$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.07 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 2,364$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 537.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 63c | 409.78$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.9 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Under | 70c | 285.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 47c | 204.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…213ebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 174$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Over | 46c | 155.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…f8c5backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phillies vs. Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Phillies vs. DodgersPhillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.