South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b7036e02e444c5a98c25d48847e64e87642806dd6e7b8bfb1d46a0cb51b2472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 43c | 60,000$25,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,349.99 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 55c | 50,464$27,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,849.55 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 69c | 6,092$4,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.8 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 64c | 2,518$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 64c | 1,021$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 970$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.16 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 52c | 933.03$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 45c | 537.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.23 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed No | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 46c | 306.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 37c | 205.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 194.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 67c | 124.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 36c | 82.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 48c | 78.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 67.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…a802backed Yes | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…a747backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…6168backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 60c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.