Premier League · resolved market
Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b929cf0072da623c773237650ab12591d22fea3490cd7b4753b6485b3e8069a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 52c | 10,048$5,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.34 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 53c | 9,346$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,953.38 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 9,091$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,801.36 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 7,757$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,053.65 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 53c | 7,681$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 3,162$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.91 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,354$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.17 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Over | 54c | 1,050$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 51c | 699.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 516.41$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 49c | 289.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 287.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Over | 53c | 168.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 54c | 148.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Over | 41c | 134.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 52c | 96.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 47c | 51.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…9b6dbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…974cbacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…986dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…1957backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 2.5this page
- Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Bournemouth (-0.5)Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.