MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bbf1c6c278c55c5a55626fc35d125bf6dc0c813e9440a2826ecabc2dd278649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,053 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cf7…b844backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 3,005$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…297cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 3,005$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 1,671$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.98 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 1,383$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.2 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 2c | 1,207$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 430.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 15c | 385.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 322.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.73 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 210$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 184.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…847dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 164.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ef…abaabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 130.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 121.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 120.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 106.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 92.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 90.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 57.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2c…e884backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…2ea6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.