Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bfa766e1c630beff2e73cebaf5c1b8f9e3382f1eb46181138eaba357d7dbd1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 31c | 60,000$18,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,300 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 54c | 29,250$15,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,455 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 23c | 3,109$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 22c | 1,396$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.87 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 43c | 1,136$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.53 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…7390backed No | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…2d4dbacked No | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 22c | 234.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…9d69backed Yes | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 73c | 229.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…0ff8backed Yes | 55c | 225$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 74c | 170.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 151.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 59c | 86.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 41c | 86.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Yes | 30c | 51.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…31cabacked Yes | 38c | 42.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 54c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…7245backed Yes | 58c | 29.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.