NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca68b3d1d578fe37f40c5f9ae297ce1db5ec25f05f8941cfca36a05d41f1ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Islanders, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Senators | 1c | 7,283$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Senators | 66c | 6,895$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.32 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Islanders | 35c | 4,148$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.32 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Islanders | 35c | 2,635$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.88 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Islanders | 44c | 2,211$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.05 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Islanders | 42c | 1,019$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.81 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Senators | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Senators | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Senators | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Senators | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…44c6backed Islanders | 53c | 231.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…fba6backed Islanders | 43c | 184.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…71c4backed Senators | 57c | 184.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61e…f76ebacked Senators | 57c | 176.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…5369backed Islanders | 43c | 176.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…1d20backed Islanders | 43c | 176.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…f55ebacked Islanders | 43c | 176.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…9328backed Senators | 57c | 176.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…c044backed Senators | 57c | 176.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed Senators | 58c | 172.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb2…3f22backed Islanders | 42c | 170.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…130dbacked Senators | 58c | 170.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Senators | 18c | 141.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Islanders | 45c | 111.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Senators | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Senators | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Islanders | 43c | 96.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Islanders | 42c | 62.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Senators | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…c880backed Islanders | 43c | 40.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…3a16backed Senators | 57c | 40.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f7…206bbacked Senators | 57c | 39.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe501…78aebacked Islanders | 46c | 38.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…a55fbacked Senators | 54c | 38.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…fb67backed Islanders | 43c | 37.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…573ebacked Senators | 57c | 33.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…4a2abacked Senators | 57c | 28.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…47b0backed Senators | 41c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…dd4cbacked Islanders | 59c | 27.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…1bdabacked Senators | 42c | 25.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…4171backed Islanders | 58c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +402.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…1604backed Senators | 64c | 21.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c98…8972backed Senators | 70c | 19.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…660cbacked Islanders | 64c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.