Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb78e22e3fd5f1a4674945630466e83cc9e5597c25598cc5f2252bf9bc2589c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof Arizona Wildcats, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 6,803$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.39 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Baylor Bears | 49c | 2,849$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.77 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 49c | 1,639$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.66 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baylor Bears | 49c | 1,193$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.6 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 991.25$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.71 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baylor Bears | 50c | 227$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…0afebacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Baylor Bears | 49c | 106.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…b0bbbacked Arizona Wildcats | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baylor Bears | 47c | 46.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…8debbacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)this page
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor BearsArizona Wildcats won
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 154.5Over won
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.