Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f93b528bd1c911e3c45d1dfb870688fb00a4a0ee3f853eb0b2e88281e392f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof Arizona Wildcats, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 7,382$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.49 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 6,783$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,192.29 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 2,320$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.41 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 1,682$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.92 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 1,356$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.32 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 574.54$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.03 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 413.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baylor Bears | 54c | 185.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 158.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Baylor Bears | 53c | 105.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…87fcbacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Arizona Wildcats | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)this page
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor BearsArizona Wildcats won
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 154.5Over won
- Arizona Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.