CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc19414f6f9b20c4df1e0da2e5299b0e73315798f8645a5afc742339d645dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nexusof Nexus, Noir Verse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Nexus | 67c | 2,725$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.58 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Noir Verse | 30c | 1,233$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.58 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Nexus | 70c | 999$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Noir Verse | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed Noir Verse | 27c | 319$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 193 | 40.4%78 W · 115 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Noir Verse | 15c | 302.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Noir Verse | 30c | 286.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Noir Verse | 35c | 271.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 317 | 41.3%131 W · 186 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Noir Verse | 25c | 270$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Noir Verse | 34c | 232.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed Nexus | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Noir Verse | 30c | 209$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 547 | 43.7%239 W · 308 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Noir Verse | 24c | 200.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Noir Verse | 28c | 179.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Noir Verse | 34c | 177.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Noir Verse | 29c | 171.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Nexus | 69c | 151$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 455 | 65.9%300 W · 155 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…cddbbacked Nexus | 75c | 135.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 133 | 71.4%95 W · 38 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Noir Verse | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Nexus | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Noir Verse | 32c | 94.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Noir Verse | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Nexus | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey PlayoffsNexus won
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 1 WinnerNexus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.