CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a420429cf02baad7ee56cfcf1b347b31477015020a1cbfadbb363cb716afc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nexusof Nexus, Noir Verse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Nexus | 65c | 1,980$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.34 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Noir Verse | 34c | 668.29$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.34 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Noir Verse | 35c | 500$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Noir Verse | 15c | 460.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…34fbbacked Noir Verse | 38c | 343.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Noir Verse | 29c | 294.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Noir Verse | 36c | 278.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nexus | 61c | 269.96$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Noir Verse | 34c | 218.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Noir Verse | 7c | 208.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 160 | 23.8%38 W · 122 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Nexus | 64c | 204.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Nexus | 71c | 182.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nexus | 76c | 173.65$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Noir Verse | 39c | 168.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…ef30backed Noir Verse | 9c | 168.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Noir Verse | 33c | 154$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 334 | 48.2%161 W · 173 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Nexus | 64c | 134.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Noir Verse | 26c | 108.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Noir Verse | 39c | 106.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Noir Verse | 28c | 95.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed Noir Verse | 39c | 77.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Nexus | 68c | 69.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…9404backed Noir Verse | 38c | 65.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Noir Verse | 36c | 63.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nexus | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Noir Verse | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Noir Verse | 22c | 49.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Nexus | 62c | 46.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Nexus | 75c | 37.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 397 | 72.5%288 W · 109 L | +38.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Noir Verse | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed Noir Verse | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Nexus | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nexus | 63c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 1 WinnerNexus won
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 WinnerNexus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.