NHL · resolved market
AHL: Tucson Roadrunners vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d63c12e734a679fa13e640651070c871a09c0c4a52074d0671ce1599c0deab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tucson Roadrunnersof Tucson Roadrunners, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 52c | 5,734$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.75 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 686$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.52 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 376.59$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 322$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 280$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 275.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 221.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Tucson Roadrunners | 45c | 205.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 55c | 203.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 192.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 136.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…ef2bbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…45a1backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…86ddbacked Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Tucson Roadrunners | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…84b4backed Tucson Roadrunners | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.