Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d9fd657aec9f27fb4319a7a2224a7318740401acb4a79bb29a9d2f5ffd0affe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Fernandez, Li
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Fernandez | 42c | 464.38$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.28 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Li | 60c | 230.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Li | 63c | 229.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Fernandez | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Fernandez | 42c | 183.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Li | 58c | 169.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Fernandez | 37c | 156.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…99f2backed Li | 64c | 76.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fernandez | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Li | 43c | 41.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72af…c833backed Fernandez | 38c | 38.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5)this page
- Ann Li vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Li vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah FernandezLeylah Fernandez won
- Set 1 Winner: Li vs FernandezFernandez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.