CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc320b71bb44c36a7d80454a961a3487aab377de35f62ccd88769ebfe226c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Walczakiof ARCRED, Walczaki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf424…9723backed ARCRED | 3c | 15,476$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.5 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed ARCRED | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 574 | 0%0 W · 574 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Walczaki | 78c | 555.16$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed ARCRED | 40c | 553.4$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed ARCRED | 31c | 400.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked Walczaki | 57c | 321$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Walczaki | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Walczaki | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Walczaki | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked Walczaki | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 28c | 143.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ARCRED | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Walczaki | 77c | 129.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed ARCRED | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Walczaki | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Walczaki | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked ARCRED | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed ARCRED | 37c | 34.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED | 34c | 33.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Walczaki | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Walczaki | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageWalczaki won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 2 WinnerWalczaki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.