Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4defa211102be501a904461e6603da53f7bf53f9751d3e8ee734201e05743769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 237.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…f2e9backed Yes | 44c | 228.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 182$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 181.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…52eabacked No | 69c | 145.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 76c | 112.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 92.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 76c | 92.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 87.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 40c | 85.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 84.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 70.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 70.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 62.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 64c | 54.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 30c | 53.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 29c | 53.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 69c | 48.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 47.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 32c | 46.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 69c | 37.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 37.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 33.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 57c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…91cebacked Yes | 39c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 69c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 79c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.