Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe202907f96d866811c7989db8511ea5fe043a9f3ac876e3f83a0a1ea41ff1109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 386.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 252.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 64c | 236.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 211.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 181.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed No | 80c | 164.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 121.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5526…6417backed Yes | 30c | 121.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 24c | 121.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 114.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 89.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 88.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 57c | 84.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 58.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 78c | 47.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 75c | 44.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 42c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 70c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…dfc0backed No | 73c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 73c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.