Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: OMG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e8787cc09027567ae9327fa69a77ce71ee65ed10509cb0febf2aafe2665b32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ultra Primeof Oh My God, Ultra Prime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Oh My God | 19c | 1,152$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.14 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ultra Prime | 61c | 1,009$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Oh My God | 39c | 641.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Oh My God | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Oh My God | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…8c7ebacked Oh My God | 7c | 233$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…3bafbacked Oh My God | 37c | 153.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Oh My God | 38c | 93.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Ultra Prime | 62c | 57.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,156 | 49.1%568 W · 588 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Oh My God | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Ultra Prime | 60c | 47.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba82…8abdbacked Ultra Prime | 69c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…928cbacked Ultra Prime | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…ffe5backed Ultra Prime | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OMG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - LPL Group NirvanaUltra Prime won
- LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 WinnerUltra Prime won
- LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 WinnerUltra Prime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.