Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvaros beat AZ Alkmaar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fdcc344be82b4da348dfba822de5ab0f91573733a2a53c12639c39b7578d6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 67c | 752.43$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.88 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 7c | 268$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 61c | 247.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed No | 61c | 224.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 30c | 188.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 39c | 112.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 79c | 88.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Yes | 40c | 75.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 39c | 55.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…2c00backed Yes | 40c | 38.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…7f7cbacked No | 60c | 34.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…b8e8backed Yes | 39c | 33.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…bbb5backed No | 61c | 33.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a371backed No | 57c | 33.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b393backed No | 60c | 32.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…32f4backed Yes | 40c | 32.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…1995backed No | 36c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…1424backed No | 61c | 32.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfb…01f8backed No | 60c | 31.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…d55bbacked Yes | 40c | 31.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6280…179dbacked No | 60c | 29.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…5683backed No | 60c | 28.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…c0fcbacked Yes | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…7104backed No | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…35f3backed No | 61c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…5b7abacked No | 61c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…a953backed No | 62c | 20.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvaros beat AZ Alkmaar?this page
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ferencvaros?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.