Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ferencvaros?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf80372c49f1f9afe28df3dd4d4e24279d5994e3e58d3dbbc83f549de87f02095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 33c | 6,074$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 67c | 3,678$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.76 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 67c | 2,228$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.62 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…9784backed Yes | 35c | 349.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 5c | 310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 75c | 310$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 68c | 250.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 68c | 227.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 31c | 40.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…f86cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 67c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ferencvaros?this page
- Will Ferencvaros beat AZ Alkmaar?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.