MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffbc3936dac2085ea3bde6c0effadf1be9ebb9787d35fccac15533319fb8a37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 6,352$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430.25 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 54c | 4,548$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.99 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Over | 54c | 1,667$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.64 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 616.27$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 311.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 223.19$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 54c | 204.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 188.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 143.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 52c | 95.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 39c | 84.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 57c | 43.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 36.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 47c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 64c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 59c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.