Fifa International · resolved market
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5022b91108fc2524c0b9779bb27c1d3dcb230fabac076f3bd2f180485bc77f2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Yes | 7c | 3,448$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.63 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Yes | 11c | 1,258$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a52…1aa8backed Yes | 2c | 513$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Yes | 15c | 282.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed Yes | 13c | 232.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 15c | 231.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…0fd0backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…f703backed Yes | 15c | 133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…048ebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goalsthis page
- Ao Tanaka: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ assistsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ goalsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ shotsYes won
- Daichi Kamada: 2+ shotsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Junya Itō: 1+ goalsYes won
- Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsYes won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ goalsNo won
- Koki Ogawa: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 3+ goalsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shotsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 5+ shotsNo won
- Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.