Fifa International · resolved market
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3351345cd303218994ebdb5b9f5547919d8980bde52c9ae25f18793bec8ce13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 76c | 463.31$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 23c | 437.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 13.7%27 W · 170 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 77c | 169.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…6bdcbacked Yes | 25c | 117.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 237 | 29.5%70 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb282…cde9backed Yes | 24c | 102.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 77c | 101.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 24c | 57.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 80c | 48.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…cd21backed Yes | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ goalsthis page
- Ao Tanaka: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ assistsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ goalsYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ shotsYes won
- Daichi Kamada: 2+ shotsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Junya Itō: 1+ goalsYes won
- Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsYes won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ goalsNo won
- Koki Ogawa: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ritsu Dōan: 3+ goalsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shotsNo won
- Takefusa Kubo: 5+ shotsNo won
- Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.